Predictive models to dengue/severe dengue and join models to TB/HIV (R-3509)

Problem statement: Dengue is a viral disease with endemic behavior, transmitted to humans by the bite of Aedes mosquitoes. In the course of the disease a patient with dengue may suffer complications. Given the intensity of its manifestations can define two clinical forms: dengue or severe. At the beginning of the illness it is not possible to know which patients will have an unfavorable evolution and develop a severe form of dengue. However, some warning symptoms and signs may be present. This early therapeutic intervention is, so far, the most effective measure to reduce the rate of death for severe dengue. TB/HIV TUBERCULOSIS (TB) is a worldwide public health problem and remains the leading cause of death among curable infectious diseases. In Cuba, since 1979 the TB's morbility and mortality trends had been very favourable. Tb is in elimination phase for this reason it becomes necessary to focus the actions in areas at risk for this disease. The small prevalence of the infection for HIV in the country (0,05%) and the existence of a consolidated national program for the prevention and the control of TB makes that the social implications of the coinfection are smaller than in other countries. However, to be TB an illness opportunist, the coinfection continues being one of the most causes in the increased of the transmission. Main objective: To contribute to the early diagnosis of clinical form using mathematical modeling and analysis for TB/HIV.

Keywords:MODELS INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Disciplines:Information and computing sciences, Biological sciences, Computer engineering, information technology and mathematical engineering, Basic sciences, Clinical sciences, Health sciences, Translational sciences