Data-driven modelling of the impact of early, wide-scale HIV treatment on HIV incidence in Southern Africa (R-2085)

A recent landmark paper (Granich et al. 2009) indicated that universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy could have a major effect on HIV incidence in countries with severe generalised HIV epidemics. However, under more realistic scenarios of suboptimal uptake of HIV treatment, age differences between sexual partners and concurrent relationships are likely to affect the impact of HIV treatment on HIV incidence. The projects primary objective is to inform the parameterisation of the simulation model SIMPACT to model the impact of early, wide-scale HIV treatment on HIV incidence in Mozambique and South Africa. In order to collect key pieces of data on sexual behaviours to inform the modelling activities, we will carry out a survey of adolescent and adult partnership formation and partnership history among female sex workers and their male clients in Tete, Mozambique and households in Cape Town, South Africa. Recurrent events analysis will be used to model partnership durations and rates of partnership initiation and termination. Thus, the epidemiological model SIMPACT will be used to estimate the impact of early HIV treatment on HIV incidence in Mozambique and South Africa, taking into account the complexities of age-mixing patterns and concurrent relationships in the population under study.

Keywords:AFRICA, CLINICAL TRIALS, CLUSTERED DATA, EPIDEMIOLOGY AND PUBLIC HEALTH, HIV, MODELS INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Disciplines:Information and computing sciences, Biological sciences, Computer engineering, information technology and mathematical engineering, Basic sciences, Clinical sciences, Health sciences, Translational sciences