Assessing the sensitivity of forest plant populations to climate change using microclimate modeling and landscape genomics

Climate change has been identified as one of the most important human-induced global drivers of biodiversity loss. Moreover, climate models predict increases in frequency, intensity, and duration of climate-related disturbances in the next few decades. One of the main consequences of climate change is that temperature isoclines move towards the poles with unprecedented speed, driving species out of parts of their current distribution range. Forest specialists in particular cannot migrate fast enough to keep up with climate change, and are thus predicted to largely rely on their ability to evolve genetically in response to climate change. It remains unknown, however, to what extent microclimate refugia, i.e. forest patches characterized by strong climate buffering capacity, provide eco-evolutionary opportunities for forest specialists in their battle against climate change. Harnessing population genomic analyes, microclimate ecology, and GIS applications, the main goals of this doctorate are to study the vulnerability of forest specialists to climate change, and to delineate conservation networks of low climate change vulnerability and high landscape connectivity.