Understanding and predicting the bio-geomorphological development of new mangrove forests in a tropical river delta.

The restoration of previously degrading mangrove forests is increasingly demanded, among others to provide nature-based solutions for climate change. However, effective mangrove restoration is hindered by knowledge-gaps on the mechanisms driving the development of new mangrove forests over bare intertidal mudflats within a tropical river delta. This study aims to develop innovative knowledge on where, when and how fast new mangrove forests can develop on the large scale of a tropical river delta (~10-100 km²), in response to long-term (decades) variability in sea level and sediment availability. This will be achieved through an integrated combination of remote sensing analyses, field measurements and bio-geomorphic modelling. This is studied in the Guayas delta (Ecuador) as an ideal case study, where large mangroves are expanding, where long-term sea level variability is driven by the El Niño climate fluctuation and climate warming, and where sediment supply to mangroves may potentially change through anthropogenic disturbance. The results will be of key relevance to improve the long-term success of mangrove restoration programs.

Keywords:GEOMORPHOLOGY, ECOSYTEM MODELLING, COASTAL WETLANDS, ECOSYSTEM RESTORATION

Disciplines:Coastal geography, Geomorphology and landscape evolution, Physical geography and environmental geoscience not elsewhere classified, Environmental monitoring