Transitional Models in Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors: Multivariate Longitudinal Designs

The proposed PhD study is part of an international collaboration between Stellenbosch University (SUN) and the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (KU Leuven, Belgium) (Public Health Psychiatry Universitair Psychiatrisch Centrum KULeuven). It is a funded joint PhD programme (Global joint-PhD Scholarship Programme) between SUN and KU Leuven and involves a joint PhD registration at SUN and KU Leuven. Furthermore, the proposed PhD study will comply with the requirements set out for obtaining a PhD by publication. The study already has the relevant ethical approval from KU Leuven, Belgium. It builds on earlier work on psychiatric emergencies in (a) the Leuven Study of Emergency Psychiatry; (more specifically, risk factors for STB ), (b) work previously conducted in the primary health care settings in Cape Town, South Africa, and (c) work previously conducted at two well-resourced SA universities among first-year university students.The proposed PhD study aims to: (1) summarize the literature on the predictors of transitions in STB; (2) describe the prevalence and distribution of STB among patients referred to the EC of the University Hospital Gasthuisberg (Leuven, Belgium) (N=38,366); and formulate a prediction model for STB transitions among patients with repeated visits to the EC of the University Hospital Gasthuisberg (Leuven, Belgium) (n=12,392) in the period 2003-2018 (i.e. STB incidence among those without prior STB and STB persistence among those with prior STB, as well as the timing of these transitions, including completed suicide); (3) evaluate the feasibility of conducting a longitudinal multivariate study on STB transitions within the SA context among individuals presenting at The Counselling Hub, a community counselling center in Cape Town, South Africa (https://counsellinghub.org.za), and (4) evaluate the feasibility of conducting a longitudinal multivariate study on STB transitions within the SA context among university students who visit the University of Stellenbosch’s Center for Student Counselling and Development (http://www.sun.ac.za/english/learning-teaching/student-affairs/cscd/overview). Therefore, the Leuven component of the proposed PhD study aims to identify patients who carry a high risk of being suicidal or becoming suicidal, enabling timely interventions and assisting in developing a proactive, individualized approach to the apprehension of individuals with STB presenting to the EC. The SA component of the proposed PhD study aims to evaluate the feasibility of a longitudinal multivariate study of STB transitions within the SA context, through piloting the protocol used in the Leuven study to ultimately enable future research on STB transitions in SA to identify individuals who carry a high risk of being suicidal or becoming suicidal; enabling timely and effective interventions.