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Heat risk assessment for the Brussels capital region under different urban planning and greenhouse gas emission scenarios

Journal Contribution - Journal Article

Urban residents are exposed to higher levels of heat stress in comparison to the rural population. As this phenomenon could be enhanced by both global greenhouse
gas emissions (GHG) and urban expansion, urban planners and policymakers should integrate both in their assessment. One way to consider these two concepts is by
using urban climate models at a high resolution. In this study, the influence of urban expansion and GHG emission scenarios is evaluated at 100m spatial resolution
for the city of Brussels (Belgium) in the near (2031–2050) and far (2081–2100) future. Two possible urban planning scenarios (translated into local climate zones,
LCZs) in combination with two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) have been implemented in the urban climate model UrbClim. The
projections show that the influence of GHG emissions trumps urban planning measures in each period. In the near future, no large differences are seen between the
RCP scenarios; in the far future, both heat stress and risk values are twice as large for RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5. Depending on the GHG scenario and the LCZ
type, heat stress is projected to increase by a factor of 10 by 2090 compared to the present-day climate and urban planning conditions. The imprint of vulnerability
and exposure is clearly visible in the heat risk assessment, leading to very high levels of heat risk, most notably for the North Western part of the Brussels Capital
Region. The results demonstrate the need for mitigation and adaptation plans at different policy levels that strive for lower GHG emissions and the development of
sustainable urban areas safeguarding livability in cities.
Journal: Environmental Management
ISSN: 0301-4797
Volume: 249
Pages: 1-11
Publication year:2019
CSS-citation score:1
Accessibility:Closed