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The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19

Tijdschriftbijdrage - Tijdschriftartikel

The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., "household bubbles". The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital admissions by 90%. In addition, we find that it is crucial to complete contact tracing 4 days after symptom onset. Assumptions on the susceptibility of children affect the impact of school reopening, though we find that business and leisure-related social mixing patterns have more impact on COVID-19 associated disease burden. An optimal deployment of the mitigation policies under study require timely compliance to physical distancing, testing and self-isolation.
Tijdschrift: Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Issue: 1
Volume: 12
Jaar van publicatie:2021
Trefwoorden:Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Belgium, COVID-19, Child, Child, Preschool, Communicable Disease Control, Disease Transmission, Infectious, Health Policy, Hospitalization, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Pandemics, SARS-CoV-2, Schools, Young Adult, Contact Tracing, Family Characteristics, Quarantine
BOF-keylabel:ja
IOF-keylabel:ja
BOF-publication weight:6
Auteurs:International
Authors from:Higher Education
Toegankelijkheid:Open