Algemeen aanvaard betrouwbaarheidsprincipe met onzekerheidmodellering en via probabilistische risicobeoordeling.
Power system reliability management means to take decisions under increasing uncertainty (for instance, related to renewable generation). It aims to maintain power system performance at a desired level, while minimizing the socio-economic costs of keeping the power system at that performance level. Seven TSOs (Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Iceland, Norway), together with eleven RTD performers, propose the four year GARPUR research project. GARPUR designs, develops, assesses and evaluates new system reliability criteria and management while maximizing social welfare as they are progressively implemented over the next decades at a pan-European level. The new management methodologies encompass multiple business activities (system development, asset management, power system operation) that, in turn, ensure coherent decision-making at the respective time horizons. These methodologies also involve mathematical and computational models to predict the location, duration and amount of power supply interruptions. Five alternatives to improve reliability management of the pan-European power system are studied. After practical validation by the TSOs, these alternatives are analysed with the help of a quantification platform. Pilot tests of the new proposed reliability criteria are performed by individual TSOs or (when appropriate) a group of TSOs using this quantification platform, either in a given control zone or (where appropriate) throughout the pan-European system. Reliability criteria are compared and presented to the TSO community and regulatory authorities who establish the robustness of the results. Dissemination activities of the new reliability criteria are supported by a Reference Group of TSOs and address all the key electricity market stakeholders. An implementation roadmap is delivered for the deployment of the resulting technical and regulatory solutions to keep the pan-European system reliability at optimal socio-economic levels.