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Good fences make good neighbors: the political economy of state fragmentation.

Boek - Dissertatie

With independence referendums in Scotland and Catalonia, electoral support for regionalist parties in Belgium and Italy and surging separatist movements throughout Ukraine, regional instability seems well on its way to reclaim a prominent spot on the European political agenda. One novelty is that independence movements increasingly embed their case in the economic realm. The Scottish Fiscal Commission Working Group recently states that "independence is the key to fully unlocking Scotland's potential" while the Catalan Advisory Council for National Transition claims that tailoring economic policies to regional needs would be "an intangible benefit that would have a positive bearing on economic growth". In spite of these claims, quantitative research on the causes and consequences of state breakup remain scant. This project aims to make progress in both areas. First, it aims to validate existing economic theories by summarizing their insights in a mathematical model of state fragmentation to identify which European regions are most likely to secede according to contemporary economic thinking. Second, it aims to quantify the economic impact of state breakup by using a novel econometric technique to estimate how GDP per capita would have evolved in newly independent countries, in absence of separation. Comparing these estimates with the actual GDP per capita trajectories enables us to approximate economic payoffs of separation and analyze their primary underlying determinants.
Jaar van publicatie:2019
Toegankelijkheid:Open