Beyond the distinction incumbent-opposition: Retrospective voting on the level of political parties

Retrospective voting is one of the most often investigated theories of voting behaviour. It postulates that voters punish or reward incumbent parties according to their performance. This approach, however, cannot explain why voters cast a stable opposition vote, or switch between incumbent parties or opposition parties respectively. This study fills this gap by showing that this traditional view should be complemented with the approach of retrospective voting to work on the level of political parties – irrespective of their incumbency status. Using data of the second Module of the CSES, it provides the first large-scale test of this new perspective on electoral accountability. The results show that satisfaction with the previously endorsed party is an important determinant of the current party choice, and that it is so for voters of all parties alike. These results provide a theoretical foundation for party-switches that could not be explained by the model so far.

Jaar van publicatie:2019

BOF-keylabel:ja

IOF-keylabel:ja

BOF-publication weight:1

CSS-citation score:3

Authors from:Higher Education

Toegankelijkheid:Open