Future multivariate weather generation by combining Bartlett-Lewis and vine copula models

The assessment of future extremes is hindered by the lack of long time series. Weather generators can alleviate this problem, but easily become complex. In this study, a weather generator combining Bartlett-Lewis models and vine copulas is presented. This combination allows for the generation of time series with statistics similar to those of the input. This model chain has never been assessed on the basis of future simulations. However, it could have value for extending climate simulations. The model chain was applied to historical observations and one climate model time series. The statistical moments and the correlation on the basis of the future simulations were comparable to those on basis of the historical observations. The results for the extremes were ambiguous, but still provided valuable information. The adequate performance for the statistical moments and the correlation indicates that the weather generator might be useful for the characterization of future extremes.

Toegankelijkheid:Open