EpiLPS: A fast and flexible Bayesian tool for estimation of the time-varying reproduction number Hasselt University
In infectious disease epidemiology, the instantaneous reproduction number is a time-varying parameter defined as the average number of secondary infections generated by an infected individual at time t. It is therefore a crucial epidemiological statistic that assists public health decision makers in the management of an epidemic. We present a new Bayesian tool (EpiLPS) for robust estimation of the time-varying reproduction number. The proposed methodology smooths the epidemic curve and allows to obtain (approximate) point estimates and credible intervals of by employing the renewal ...