Publications
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Assessing the relationship between epidemic growth scaling and epidemic size: The 2014–16 Ebola epidemic in West Africa Hasselt University KU Leuven University of Antwerp
We assess the relationship between epidemic size and the scaling of epidemic growth of Ebola epidemics at the level of administrative areas during the 2014–16 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. For this purpose, we quantify growth scaling parameters from the ascending phase of Ebola outbreaks comprising at least 7 weeks of epidemic growth. We then study how these parameters are associated with observed epidemic sizes. For validation purposes, we ...
Anticipating visceral leishmaniasis epidemics due to the conflict in Northern Ethiopia Institute of Tropical Medicine
Modelling interacting epidemics in overlapping populations Ghent University
Epidemic modelling is fundamental to our understanding of biological, social and technological spreading phenomena. As conceptual frameworks for epidemiology advance, it is important they are able to elucidate empirically-observed dynamic feedback phenomena involving interactions amongst pathogenic agents in the form of syndemic and counter-syndemic effects. In this paper we model the dynamics of two types of epidemics with syndemic and ...
Bursts of vertex activation and epidemics in evolving networks Ghent University
The dynamic nature of contact patterns creates diverse temporal structures. In particular, empirical studies have shown that contact patterns follow heterogeneous inter-event time intervals, meaning that periods of high activity are followed by long periods of inactivity. To investigate the impact of these heterogeneities in the spread of infection from a theoretical perspective, we propose a stochastic model to generate temporal networks where ...
Have the explosive HIV epidemics in Sub-Saharan Africa been driven by higher community viral load? [letter] Institute of Tropical Medicine
Role of concurrency in generalised HIV epidemics [letter] Institute of Tropical Medicine
Attempting to explain heterogeneous HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: potential role of historical changes in risk behaviour and male circumcision Institute of Tropical Medicine
Background: A key conclusion of the Four Cities Study, carried out to explore reasons for heterogeneity in the HIV epidemic between two cities in sub-Saharan Africa with relatively low prevalence (Cotonou and Yaounde) and two with high prevalence (Kisumu and Ndola), was that differences in biological cofactors outweighed differences in sexual risk behaviours. The authors explore an alternative hypothesis, that risk behaviours were historically ...
Epidemics and fear [editorial] Institute of Tropical Medicine
The epidemic volatility index, a novel early warning tool for identifying new waves in an epidemic Institute of Tropical Medicine
Early warning tools are crucial for the timely application of intervention strategies and the mitigation of the adverse health, social and economic effects associated with outbreaks of epidemic potential such as COVID-19. This paper introduces, the Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), a new, conceptually simple, early warning tool for oncoming epidemic waves. EVI is based on the volatility of newly reported cases per unit of time, ideally per ...