Title Promoter Affiliations Abstract "Development of a decision support system for the assessment and mitigation of the impact of global climate change and seawater level rise on water supply for local residents in coastal areas of Vietnam" "Okke Batelaan" "Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering" "Development of a decision support system for the assessment and mitigation of the impact of global climate change and seawater level rise on water supply for local residents in coastal areas of Vietnam" "Global climate change hotspots in terms of multi-risk assessment of hydro-climatic hazards" "Patrick Willems" "Hydraulics and Geotechnics" "The natural hazards can have devastating consequences on the society in terms of human health and mortality and also on the ecosystem and the economy. In the last decade, five billion people have been affected by natural disasters resulting in approximately $1 trillion of economic losses around the world. The hydro-climatic natural hazards are becoming more dangerous as a result of climate change and as population and infrastructure continue to increase and occupy areas exposed to higher risks. This underscores the importance of analyzing future hydro-climatic natural hazards to provide an essential foundation for local authorities and policymakers to apply an acceptable level of hydro-climatic hazard risk, to define the regional protection level required and to implement the best mitigation/adaptation plans for the future hazards. This research therefore aims to contribute to a better understanding of how climate change may impact hydroclimatic hazards in the world. The specific objectives of the research are 1) to investigate the impact of climate change on hydro-climatic hazards (i.e., extreme precipitation, streamflow extremes and drought) at the global scale, 2) to assess the uncertainty in the projected changes in hydro-climatic hazards and 3) to perform an integrated analysis of risk and vulnerability at different spatiotemporal scales and identify the climate change hotspots. " "Climate change and the legitimacy challenge. An empirical investigation into the threat of climate change to perceived democratic legitimacy and potential procedural solutions." "Sofie Marien" "Centre for Political Research" "Climate change poses a challenge for democratic governance: On the one hand, it is essential to get citizens on board with transformative policy decisions to deal with climate change. On the other hand, citizens might start to question the legitimacy of democratic institutions and demand new types of governance if they feel that existing institutions cannot adequately protect them from the consequences of climate change. This presents a challenge to perceived democratic legitimacy. In this project, I connect literatures on environmental political theory, environmental psychology and democratic innovation to first study this legitimacy challenge posed by climate change and second, to investigate the potential of procedural reform to strengthen the perceived legitimacy of climate policy and democratic institutions. Especially two types of procedural reform are investigated: participatory processes that involve citizens (for instance through climate assemblies) and expert-based processes (for instance expert commissions). Using a survey (WP1) and a survey experiment (WP2) I will study how the threat of climate change affects the perceived legitimacy of climate policies and democratic institutions and (anti)democratic preferences of citizens. Further, I will test whether procedural reforms can address these perceived legitimacy deficits using a survey experiment (WP3) and an in-depth study of a real life example of a participatory process: a global climate assembly (WP4).  " "Impact of climate change and climate extremes on the Agriculture and Forestry in the Europe-Russia-Turkey Region" "Philippe De Maeyer" "Department of Geography, Department of Physics and astronomy" "The ongoing climate change has widespread and consequential impacts all over the world including increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather events. Despite positive impacts in some regions of Europe, Russia and Turkey, future warming will create multiple risks for natural and economic systems, in particular for agriculture and forestry sectors. Decision-makers and stakeholders are interested in a comprehensive, scientifically based assessment of the consequences of observed and future climate change, therefore the main goal of the AFTER project is impact assessment of climate changes and climate extremes on agriculture and forestry in the Europe-Russia-Turkey Region. AFTER aims at bridging the usability gap between state-of-the-art regional climate information and the demand for information at regional scale for climate change impact assessment and adaptation. The main objective of AFTER is to provide state-of-the-art climate information to assess: (i) impact of ongoing and projected global climate change and subsequent changes in climate extremes on the agriculture and forestry in selected regions of Europe, Russia and Turkey; and (ii) the level of contribution, which these changes in agriculture and forestry can provide to climate change mitigation and adaptation due to existing feedbacks." "Towards a high temporal and spatial climate resolution to asses hygrothermal building degradation risks for climate change in Europe" "Nathan Van Den Bossche" "Department of Architecture and urban planning, Department of Physics and astronomy" "The ongoing climate change has widespread and consequential impacts all over the world including increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather events. There is an urgent need to understand environmental risks (e.g. freeze-thaw, wood decay, mold growth, corrosion) that determine the service life of building materials. However, fundamental knowledge gaps prevent this analysis from being carried out. Firstly, there exists an important temporal and spatial resolution mismatch between climate information and the data needed to investigate building degradation processes. Hygrothermal simulation models typically use 10-minute or hourly weather data, whereas climate projections are often reported with 3-hourly data at best. Observations and historical simulations will be used to develop a method to convert 3-hourly data to 10-minute data to accurately calculate wind driven rain loads on buildings. Furthermore, hygrothermal simulations need location specific climate data. In Belgium, typically only one climate file is used, whereas this project will provide data at a 1km-resolution which allows to study regional climate effects and the urban heat island effect. Finally, it is crucial to study the uncertainty inherent to climate projections by using an ensemble of models. These methodological innovations will result at the end of the project in a kilometer-scale climate change risk assessment for different global warming levels for building degradation over Europe." "INSIGHTS ON THE RECONFIGURATION OF FRAGILE INDUSTRIAL WATERFRONTS DEFINED BY CLIMATE CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DECLINE. The case of Coney Island Creek, New York." "Maarten Gheysen, Kris Scheerlinck" "Urban Design, Urbanism, Landscape and Planning" "At first sight, cities are accumulations of the tangible, the perceivable and the more static: buildings and streets, infrastructures and waterways, houses and schools and parks and supermarkets. But cities worldwide are simultaneously under constant pressure from an intangible discourse, from changes caused by shocks and stresses, which require them to respond and adapt in a resilient way. These shocks and stresses can result from unsolicited events (like a superstorm or global pandemic), or self-induced changes (such as large redevelopment projects or major social events), and may manifest only briefly (shocks) or last for longer (stresses). At a certain point in time and space, these shocks and stresses will affect the cities’ neighborhoods, triggering transformation of their spatial, social, economic, or environmental conditions and processes. This translation of shocks and stresses onto the neighborhood can manifest on a multitude of scales. It is this moment of impact, when the existing configuration and operation of a neighborhood meets the variable of shocks and stresses, that this research regards as the crucial moment when lessons can be learned.This research considers post-industrial waterfronts in metropolitan cities to be protagonists, incubators even, in responding to shocks and stresses because of their unique spatial and social conditions. Over history, their strategic location has often resulted in them becoming pioneers for change, manifesting change first, in more extreme or in deviant forms than at more inland locations. As a result, several waterfront neighborhoods have gradually transformed into areas with interesting overlap scenarios, with a coexistence of multiple urban identities. Gradual internal transformation processes have transformed many post-industrial waterfronts into a coexistence of land uses, users and activities that have been continuously adapting to shocks and stresses, on multiple scales, for decades. This generated the foundation of this research, which is to learn from New York City’s waterfront as a laboratory for urban transformation processes. This doctoral project uses New York City’s 830 kilometers of coastline as a learning case, focusing specifically on its hybrid, post-industrial neighborhoods. Because of their unique conditions, these post-industrial waterfronts have often experienced a more internal and gradual transformation process, while being spared from the impact of larger external processes. Their unique form of transformation has resulted in ambiguous urban areas that are constantly adapting themselves to local needs, becoming platforms for users and uses on a smaller scale. Generally, these waterfront neighborhoods have gained hybrid border conditions, located at the juxtaposition of water and land, of past and future, of rich and poor, of planned and unplanned. Their hybrid character is defined by their large socio-economic diversity and inclusiveness, which is hosted by the areas’ spatial conditions - the grid being interrupted by the coastline - that are unique to the city. Their transformation is manifesting predominantly at the local and the human scale, while the impact of global- and metropolitan-scale processes remain largely absent. This results in neighborhoods where opposites and frictions are still present, but their transitional character generally guarantees a more harmonious adaptation to changing preconditions.Through eight cases of post-industrial waterfront neighborhoods in New York City, this doctorate looks into their internal, gradual transformation processes, and compares this with how transformation is happening in a contemporary context, where the current larger societal, economic, or environmental processes affect an existing neighborhood. The question is posed as to how these larger-scale, external processes are spatially translated into the complex context of the post-industrial waterfront, and what this means in terms of shock and stress resilience. The thesis identifies multiple translations of such external processes of transformation, their scales, their stakeholders, and their potential point of impact within a neighborhood.Ultimately, all the research comes together in the case study of Coney Island Creek, the main body of this research. Just like the eight selected waterfront neighborhoods, the case of Coney Island Creek is considered a laboratory, in order to reveal its actual needs and opportunities in a crucial stage before redevelopment. This hybrid post-industrial waterfront is the result of decades of gradual, internal transformation processes and has now arrived at a crucial turning point in time. The neighborhood has largely stayed under the radar for external processes of transformation, but currently, several proposals for their spatial translation are in the pipeline. The highly transitional area of Coney Island Creek is used by this research as an urban laboratory, revealing its understated and small-scale potentials that may contribute to a city that is resilient to change and tolerant to multiple future scenarios. The neighborhood is fully analyzed by a multi-scalar approach, addressing global-, metropolitan-, local-, and human-scale shocks and stresses. Its built environment is revealed by its multitude of urban identities, analyzed by numerous mappings, drawings, interviews, photo reports, and so on. Finally, a reflection is made on the moment of impact, where the multi-scalar shocks and stresses affect the current configuration and operation of this neighborhood. The in-depth analysis of the case study considers the area in all its complexity, unveiling crucial insights in terms of potential transformation. The outcome of this research is derived from a strong empirical approach in combination with an extensive theoretical framework. The research has been conducted by an exploration of multiple methods of analysis, including substantial fieldwork conducted by means of regular site visits, local interviews, organizing exhibitions, workshops, and summer schools, meetings with local professionals and stakeholders, in-depth analysis through mapping, drawing, making photo reports, conducting designerly research, and an extensive literature review of the existing academic research. All the information obtained has been combined with the goal of creating an extensive knowledge base and crucial insights into the values of post-industrial waterfronts as platforms to learn from, to test strategies for the resilient and inclusive city, and to reflect the results on other non-waterfront locations.Based on the analyses conducted, this research reveals how the post-industrial waterfront as an urban laboratory can contribute to the future transformation of the metropolitan city, as it has done throughout history. The innovation lies in the multi-scalar and multi-layered approach that is applied to understand the transformation of complex urban areas that would otherwise largely remain under the radar. The research uses the obtained insights to articulate a new attitude to read, understand, and intervene in hybrid urban neighborhoods. This attitude is to be perceived as an input for architecture, planning, and the reading of complex urban scenarios." "The Role of Agricultural Trade and Trade Policy in Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation" "Miet Maertens" "Geography and Tourism, Bioeconomics" "Food systems face a dual challenge: they are responsible for a third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and are at the same time heavily affected by climate change. Agri-food trade across borders plays an important role in this challenge as food systems are globalized, and both the GHG emission intensity of and climate change impacts on agricultural production vary internationally. The overall research objective of the PhD thesis is to investigate the role of agricultural trade and trade policy in contributing to climate change mitigation – preventing and reducing anthropogenic GHG emissions and increasing carbon sinks – and adaptation – coping with the adverse effects of climate change – in the Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Use (AFOLU) sector. In Chapter 1 I describe the conditions explaining the linkages between agri-food trade and climate change mitigation and adaptation, and I review the current evidence and research gap on these linkages. The subsequent chapters address specific elements of the research gap, focusing mostly on climate change adaptation and on challenges for the AFOLU sector in Africa.In Chapter 2 I investigate how climate change and trade policies interact in their impact on global hunger projections up to 2050 using the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), a spatially explicit partial equilibrium economic model of the global land use sectors. Under the current level of trade integration, climate change would lead to up to 55 million people who are undernourished in 2050. Without adaptation through trade, the impacts of global climate change would increase to 73 million people who are undernourished (+33%). Reduction in tariffs as well as institutional and infrastructural barriers would decrease the negative impact to 20 million (−64%) people. We analyze the adaptation effect of trade and climate-induced specialization patterns. The adaptation effect is strongest for hunger-affected import-dependent regions. However, in hunger-affected export-oriented regions, partial trade integration can lead to increased exports at the expense of domestic food availability. The chapter concludes that although trade integration is a key component of adaptation, it needs sensitive implementation to benefit all regions.In Chapter 3 I assess the impact of continental free trade and domestic agricultural market development in Africa on agricultural trade, undernourishment, and GHG emissions from the AFOLU sector by 2050. By modelling trade costs from farm gate to potential import markets across eight African regions in the GLOBIOM model, we investigate the impact of individual components of continental free trade and the complementary role of domestic agricultural development through increased market access for farmers and agricultural intensification. We find that free trade would increase intra-African agricultural trade six fold by 2030 but outside food imports and undernourishment would reduce only marginally. Agricultural development could almost eliminate undernourishment in Africa by 2050 at only a small cost of increased global GHG emissions. Aligning continental free trade with local agricultural development policies is found to be crucial to increase intra-African trade gains, promote food security, and achieve climate change mitigation objectives.In Chapter 4 I investigate the implications of subnational trade costs for the role of international crop trade in climate change adaptation in Eastern and Southern Africa. The chapter is motivated by the observation that projections of future climate change impacts on crop yields vary spatially and market integration and trade patterns determine to what extent climatic changes in one location create impacts in other areas. We develop a partial equilibrium model of intra- and international crop trade in Eastern and Southern Africa and use it to simulate a set of climate change and trade counterfactuals. The counterfactual simulations are analyzed under two different model setups, with national markets or with subnational markets, and the comparison suggest that the role of international trade may be biased when subnational trade costs are ignored. We discuss further extensions needed to improve the model calibration and counterfactual analyses, including by capturing data on informal cross-border trade and uncertainty in climate change yield projections.In Chapter 5 I examine the impact of agricultural storage and trade on food insecurity under climate-induced variability and uncertainty in agricultural production. We develop a novel theoretical framework combining household level saving and consumption smoothing with market level trade and storage. Based on a numerical simulation exercise, we derive three qualitative predictions on intertemporal consumption smoothing under climatic variability. To empirically validate the predictions, we use data on climate extremes, food insecurity, and market access at sub-national and intra-annual resolution for 12 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2009 to 2016. We find that in areas where households face larger market transaction costs, represented by longer travel times to the closest large city, extreme dry climatic conditions have a significantly larger impact on food insecurity. Dry extremes also increase food insecurity to a larger extent in areas with higher travel times to the closest large port. The chapter concludes that micro- and macro-level economic interactions and spatiotemporal climatic correlations are crucial to consider when investigating market-based adaptation to climate change.In Chapter 6 I link the insights from the previous four chapters with respect to three overarching research themes: the pattern of comparative advantage in agriculture, the role of agricultural trade in climate change adaptation, and the role of agricultural trade in climate change mitigation. I discuss the relevance and policy messages of these findings. I then summarize the limitations of the thesis and conclude by discussing promising areas of further research. Overall, to improve our understanding of the linkages between trade and climate change in the AFOLU sector, future research needs to expand on the spatial cross-scales analyses in this thesis, advance along different temporal scales (short-term, long-term, and cross-scale feedbacks), and investigate trade-offs and synergies between agri-food trade as a mitigation and adaptation mechanism." "Impact of vegetation responses to climate change on the hydrological system in Belgium." "Dirk Raes" "Hydraulics and Geotechnics, Soil and Water Management" "On a global scale, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) and the associated process of global warming cause climatic changes. They include increased air temperatures, altered rainfall patterns and a higher occurrence of extreme weather episodes. In Belgium, expected climaticchanges include higher temperatures year round, wetter winters and drier summers. Agricultural production and its available water resources arehighly vulnerable to climatic changes. The magnitude and direction of the climate change impact on agricultural production and the soil water balance depend on location and environment. Generally, elevated [CO2] benefit crop production by stimulating photosynthesis and simultaneously reducing crop transpiration (through stomatal closure). Decreases in rainfall can lead to water stress for crops and drier soils. But also floods and changes in rainfall intensity can be harmful for agricultural fields. Temperature increases lead to a higher evaporative demand of the atmosphere. If temperatures rise to supra-optimal temperatures, crop production is at risk. In temperate regions at mid latitude however, moderate rises in air temperature extend the length of the suitable growing period and allow to grow late maturing cultivars with a higher production potential. In this research, the impact of combined changes in weather variables and [CO2] on four important crops in the Flemish Region ofBelgium was assessed with process-based crop models, driven by future weather projections from climate models. First, scenarios offuture local-scale weather were generated for the study area. Scenarioswere constructed by downscaling climate signals from two ensembles of global (GCMs, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)) andregional climate models (RCMs, from the EU-ENSEMBLES project (ENS)) by the stochastic weather generator LARS-WG. All models used in this research projected temperature increases but the CMIP3-based scenarios were generally more pronounced than the ENS-based scenarios. For precipitation,projected trends in change were less univocal. Next, the AquaCrop model was selected as impact model and prepared for the assessment study. AquaCrop is a functional, multi-crop model that is principallywater-driven and simulates crop development and production. At the coreof the model is the biomass production, which is simulated in exchange for water transpired by the developing crop canopy. The proportional factor between transpiration and biomass production is the water productivity parameter. To augment the understanding of and adapt themodel for crop responses to elevated [CO2], a statistical meta-analysis of research results of free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) studies was performed. The most prominent analysis results were the positive correlation between [CO2] and biomass/yield production and the negative correlation between [CO2] and evapotranspiration. They lead to a substantial increase in water productivity for crops (for both C3 andC4type crops). Additionally, changes in root:shoot ratio and phenology were apparent. Based on the results of the meta-analysis, a correction factor was introduced in AquaCrop to correct transpiration downwards with increasing [CO2]. Additionally, a flexible response of the water productivity parameter to elevated [CO2] was introduced to capture the variation in crop responsiveness associated with crop sink strength. Limited sink strength of a crop in the field, e.g. as a result of sub-optimal nitrogen availability, can suppress the crop responsiveness to CO2. The research results suggest that considering crop sink strength and variationin responsiveness is equally relevant to considering climatic changes and elevated [CO2] when assessing future crop production. Indicativevalues for crop responsiveness (representing sink strength) were proposed for all crops currently available in the AquaCrop database. Subsequently, a global sensitivity analysis of the AquaCrop model output to changes in model parameters was performed, and the model was calibrated and validated for the temperate maritime climate of Belgium. Thesensitivity analysis consisted of a Morris screening followed by an EFAST analysis. The analysis revealed important interaction effects betweenparameters and some irrelevant parameters, for which suggestions for model simplification were formulated. In general, the models yield outputsensitivity to important parameters depends strongly on environmental conditions but thematic categories of parameters that merit attention according to different local conditions can be distinguished. The calibration and validation of the AquaCrop model was performed basedon field data collected on farmers fields. AquaCrop could be satisfactorily calibrated and validated for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), maize (Zea mays L.), potato (Solanum tubersosum L.) and sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.) in the actual temperate maritime climate of Belgium. Given the earlier successful validation of the model in warmer conditions, under more severe levels of water stress and at elevated [CO2], and given the models physiological base, it was assumed that AquaCrop can be used under the future climate conditions. Winter cereals form an exception because particularities characteristic to these winter crops, including dormancy, cold hardening and vernalization, are summarized in AquaCrop. Yet, it turned out that without explicit consideration of these processes, simulated crop development responds too strongly to the projected future temperatures increase. Thus, the wheat model Sirius, which explicitly considers these processes, was selected to perform winter wheat simulations under future climate conditions. Finally, the impact assessment of climatic changes on the four major crops in the FlemishRegion was performed by using the climate projections as input for the impact models AquaCrop and Sirius. Even though impacts vary among crops,environment and projected climatic changes, there are clear trendsvisible. Advantages of climate change dominate over negative effects for meancrop production in Belgium towards the middle of this century. Elevated [CO2] benefits production of winter wheat, potato and sugar beet and counteracts potential negative effects of supra-optimal temperatures and precipitation changes. Maize benefits less from elevated [CO2] than the C3 crops and can suffer from drought stress under the projectedclimatic changes. Adaption of cultivation management (including shiftedsowing dates and late maturing cultivars) shows additionally potential to augment the mean production level of spring-sown crops. Yet, climaticchanges and adapted management also have an impact on interannual yieldstability, which decreases generally for spring-sown crops. Even thoughthe projected climatic changes may lead to mean production gains in theFlemish Region of Belgium, the soil water balance can be negatively affected. Often, this increases the incidence of drought stress for crops, which increases the crops vulnerability and affects the yield stabilitynegatively. Only for winter wheat, changes in climate affect much less the soil water balance and interannual yield stability.This research does not pretend to represent the future reality. Instead, it provides probable future trends, which may be expected in agriculture in the coming decades under a changing climate. Uncertainty related to climate scenario generation propagates to the impact assessment. Although we canonly speculate that RCM-based scenarios may be more advanced than GCM-based scenarios for agricultural impact assessments, the research resultsdemonstrate definitely that the choice of one or another ensemble of climate models (with different resolution) adds to the overall uncertaintyof climate change impact assessments in agriculture." "The impact of large dams on the climate: A global climate modelling study." "Wim Thiery" "Faculty of Engineering, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering" "Humans have constructed more than 45 000 large dams across the globe for irrigation, water supply, flood control, and hydropower generation. Dams have a large influence on the water cycle by altering the overall global water budget. Therefore, their role is of inevitable importance when assessing runoff and water availability. In addition, dammed lakes influence regional meteorological conditions by changing atmospheric heat and moisture budgets. However, a thorough understanding of the effects of dams on the climate is currently lacking. This is remarkable, as two-way interactions between water resources and climate are likely to set future water availability in many regions. The aim of this project is therefore to assess the impacts of dams on the climate at the local, regional and global scale. More specifically, the proposed project will contribute (i) by including the representation of dams in an earth system model, (ii) by assessing the added value of this inclusion for realistic climate modeling, (iii) by quantifying the total effect of reservoirs on the 20th century climate with particular focus on climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts and intense precipitation, and (iv) by separating the local and downstream contributions to this total climate impact. The outcomes of this research will contribute to improved climate change projections and will lead the way towards assessing the relation between climate change and future water availability." "Are terrestrial carbon cycle responses to climate change governed by soil properties and microbial symbionts?" "Sara Vicca" "Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Plant and Ecosystems (PLECO) - Ecology in a time of change" "The fate of the land carbon (C) sink is a major source of uncertainty in climate change projections. This uncertainty originates to a considerable degree from difficulties in estimating ecosystem responses to climate change itself, which depend on multiple factors. While moderating roles of for example ecosystem type and background climate are understood and accounted for in models, much less is known on how soil properties, resource availability and microbial symbionts influence global-scale responses to warming and precipitation change. I hypothesize that these soil-related factors explain to a significant degree why climate change responses vary so much, given their known role in determining ecosystem function. By using complementary benefits of ongoing, distributed climate change experiments and meta-analyses on a database I and international colleagues collaborated on, I aim to unravel global-scale patterns as well as in-depth mechanisms underlying soils' and symbionts' role in determining climate change responses. Using a novel approach to quantify nutrient availability, I here for the first time also plan to assess how climate change responses vary along resource availability gradients vs manipulations. Finally, I will evaluate if current land surface models realistically simulate soil/symbiont-dependent tradeoffs among C cycle pool and flux responses to climate change. Based on the findings, the project will contribute to more realistic projections of the land C sink."