Title Promoter Affiliations Abstract "Review editor for Chapter 5 ""Drivers, Trends and Mitigation"" and ""glossary"" of the contribution of WG III (Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change) at the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." "Aviel Verbruggen" "Engineering Management" "This project represents a formal service agreement between UA and on the other hand Belspo. UA provides Belspo research results mentioned in the title of the project under the conditions as stipulated in this contract." "FORBIO CLIMATE: Adaptation potential of biodiverse forests in the face of climate change" "FORBIO CLIMATE FORBIO CLIMATE: Adaptation potential of biodiverse forests in the face of climate change Fed. Wet. Beleid BR/132/A1 Climate change is expected to have a large impact on the distribution, composition and functioning of forest ecosystems worldwide due to the limited migration and adaptation potential of trees. Creating resistant and resilient forests is thus a key challenge for forest management. It has been suggested recently that epigenetic mechanisms may increase the capacity of trees to survive in a changing environment, but the extent and importance of these mechanisms in seedlings and saplings are still unknown. Research has also shown that more biodiverse ecosystems are better buffered against disturbances, e.g. because of complementary resource use and lower susceptibility to pest and pathogen attacks. Yet, these studies were predominantly performed in grasslands. More insight into the adaptive capacity of trees - in their consecutive life stages (frorn seedling to adult) - and forests to climate change is thus badly needed. FORB!O Climate wants to scrutinize the adaptive capacity of tree species and predict the future performance of tree species in Belgium under different scenarios of climate change. The project will focus on oak (Quercus roburlpetraea) and beech (Fagus sy!vatica), two tree species with high ecological and economic significance in Belgium (and Europe). FORBIO Climate will capitalize upon two unique research infrastr'-lctures available in Belgium, i.e. the FORBIO experimental sites and the Observational Biodiversity Platform, to test the following hypotheses: (l} epigenetic inheritance mechanisms can increase the ad~rtivP c.~r~rity of trpes to c!fmate chanee during the reproduction stage; (2) a.cross subsequent tree development stages, tree performance in more biodiverse forests is more resistant and resilient to climate change. The project is strnctured in five work packages (WPs). \NP1 wii! provide past climate data from selected weather stations that will be linked to the measurements on seedlings, saplings and mature trees in WP2-4 to assess the effects of climate variation on tree performance. WP1 will also provide high-resolution simulritions of the future climate by combining the existing ALADIN model with the SURFEX land surface modelling platform in a new Regional Climate Model. The simulation results wili be used in WPS to make projections about future tree performance," "Climate change and changes in Spatial structures in Flanders (CcASPAR)." "Patrick Meire" "Ecosystem Management" "Abstraction of the success of mitigating short term measures, climate change will anyhow influence the way in which Flemish society organises its use of land and space. Instead of closing our eyes, it is time to develop strategies to anticipate to possible effects of climate change, or ¿ put in other words ¿ to assess new investments in spatial development and to investigate how to make them climate proof so they can withstand the effects of climate change. Therefore, key words of the research project are: 'climate change', 'spatial structures', 'changes in spatial structures' and 'Flanders'. The scientific objectives of the research project can be defined as- a qualitative exploration through research by design of possible planning concepts for a more adaptive approach of changes in spatial structures as a result of climate change;- a scientific evaluation and appreciation of existing planning policy instruments and public governance mechanisms in relation to the implementation of spatial adaptation strategies in relation to climate change.In the project design, six major work packages are defined besides the co-ordination of the research project.1. In the first place, work package 1 will assess the spatial impact of climate change in Flanders for different climate change scenarios. It will geographically differentiate the primary effects (with a focus on the water system) and the secondary effects on different land uses in 2050 and 2100. Next, a spatial adaptation strategy at the macro scale of Flanders will be set out, first in general, later on more in detail with information from the other work packages, in particular from work package 6 that focuses on the meso and micro scale.2. 2-4. Work packages 2, 3 and 4 will assess, at the same macro scale of Flanders, the geographically differentiated impact of the climate change effects on different spatial (sub)structures: the spatial-natural structure, the landscape structure and the spatial structures of human activities. The common way of thinking in these work packages is first to define a relevant typology of elements of these spatial structures in relation to climate change, next to assess/analyse the sensitivity of these elements for climate change, and finally to develop adaptation strategies mitigating the effects of climate change on these spatial structures.5. The findings of the first four work packages are gathered in two integrated planning cases in work package 5, one for the coastal zone in Flanders and one for the more land inward region of the Kempen. Through research by design, coherent complexes of spatial planning concepts for the adaptation of spatial structures at meso (regional) and micro (local) level will be defined to tackle the effects of climate change in a sustainable way. The objective at micro level is to design planning concepts for the spatial development of harbours, residential and industrial zones.6. Finally, work package 6 formulates policy recommendations on spatial adaptation strategies in relation to climate change, in particular at the meso (regional/provincial) and the micro (local) level. The existing institutional context as well as existing spatial adaptation strategies abroad will be analysed. This analysis, together with the findings of the five other work packages, will result in recommendations concerning policy instruments and governance techniques." "The Ecology of Living in Small Fragments: Resource availability and feeding ecology of GHLTs groups in small fragments and the effects of matrix connectivity, hunting pressure and climate change on their long-term changes for persistence." "Alexandre Schiavetti, Eliana Cazetta, Leonardo C. Oliveira, Kristel De Vleeschouwer" "Royal Zoological Society of Antwerp, Project BioBrasil, Royal Zoological Society of Antwerp" "Golden-headed lion tamarins use both mature and degraded forest in addition to cabruca agroforest, the traditional form of cocoa cultivation used in Southern Bahia where cocoa is grown under the shade of native forest trees. Yet, cabruca can differ considerably in vegetation structure, which likely affects local habitat suitability and pathways for GHLTs to move between fragments. Cabruca is the principal habitat within the matrix connecting forest fragments, in addition to a variety of other landscape elements (e.g. pasture, agricultural areas) that are generally unsuitable for use as part of a group´s home range but vary in suitability for GHLT movement between forest fragments. Currently very little information exists on the factors that limit GHLT movement between fragments and those that determine mortality of dispersing individuals in the matrix. Such data, however, are important determinants for the outcome of population and landscape models that test the long-term survival of wild GHLT populations given current and future changes in the landscape. Genetic data suggest that, in the eastern part of the GHLT distribution range, gene flux is maintained in areas connected principally by mature and/or secondary forest, whereas gene flux in areas connected by cabruca alone seems compromised. This decreased gene flux is particularly important because the eastern region contains the only forest fragment large enough to sustain a genetically viable population of GHLTs. Given the extreme degree of fragmentation in the western portion of the GHLT distribution range, maintaining the integrity of the eastern forest block and its connectivity with other forest fragments in the landscape, thus ensuring gene flux, is critical for the long-term persistence of the species. In order to develop sound conservation measures for both eastern and western populations of GHLTs, it is critical to understand ecological pressures on individuals and groups in cabruca areas and in degraded fragments as well as factors that affect suitability and permeability of cabruca and other landscape elements. This will improve our understanding of the species´ flexibility in using extremely fragmented and degraded habitat and the actual potential of the matrix for maintaining connectivity and gene flux between GHLT populations in fragments across the landscape. Such information is essential for the definition of effective landscape management scenarios compatible with the long-term persistence of self-sustaining GHLT populations in southern Bahia. In addition to matrix permeability and the particular characteristics of the fragment in itself, additional factors acting on a larger scale (ecosystem) may affect the viability of GHLT groups in small and medium sized fragments. GHLTs, along with other frugivorous species are important dispersers of a large number of tree species. Particularly in small fragments, the disperser assembly is likely to be impoverished, both due to changes in the availability of resources to dispersers, difficulties with dispersers reaching fragments, and human activities e.g. hunting and logging or forest-degrading activities that directly impact on disperser presence and activity. Even if present in small fragments, the medium- and long term establishment of tree species that are key to GHLTs may be compromised as a result of these factors, implicating on the availability of GHLT resources in the long term. Additionally, larger scale factors such as climate change may impact on the distribution patterns of important tree species. The current overall research program conducted by Project BioBrasil intends to study the effects of forest fragmentation on GHLTs (and possibly other frugivores) in small to medium sized fragments from several perspectives: 1) By investigating matrix permeability around small fragments considered at the limit of carrying capacity for a group of GHLTs; 2) By investigating the ecology of GHLT groups living in small fragments; 3) By investigating the factors that affect the short-, medium and long-term availability of resources in small and medium sized fragments: spatial and temporal changes in seasonality (intra- and interannually), effects of climate change on the distribution of key tree species; diversity of the disperser assembly contributing to maintaining key plant resources for GHLTs and the resources available to them in small fragments; the intensity of hunting in fragments and its impact on the disperser assembly." "Role Changes of the EU and China in Climate Change Policy in interaction with EU-China Cooperation in the Post-Kyoto Era" "Jan Orbie" "Department of Political Sciences" "The research project have two targets: Firstly, it aims to identify and understand the role change of the EU and China in the post-Kyoto era. Secondly, it aims to examine the interaction between these role changes and EU-China climate change cooperation by focusing at both the bilateral and the multilateral level." "Remote sensing based assessment and modeling of land use/cover change as impact bij stream dynamics and climate schange in the Northern marginal grabens of the Ethiopian rift vally (PhD research by biadgilgn demissie" "Jan Nyssen" "Department of Geography" "Tis research concerns the quantification of stream cours dynamics, changes in land use/cover and changes in livelihood variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales in an endorheic basin in Ethiopia. It will also provide a framework to study the interaction among climate change, stream dynamics and land use/vocer schanges, to investigate the controlling factors and to design appopriate measures." "CLIMAS : CLIMAte change citizens engagement toolbox for dealing with Societal resilience" "Havva Ebrahimi Pour, Laura Temmerman, Dorottya Varga, Carina Veeckman, Ilse Marien" "Deep Blue S.r.l., Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, European Commission, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences and Solvay Business School, Studies in Media, Innovation and Technology, Communication Sciences" "Climate change is one of the most critical issues to tackle today as it is foreseen to have detrimental social, environmental and economic impacts in the near future. The last climate change events, such as flooding in Germany and Belgium in both Continental and Atlantic regions, heat waves and lack of water in both Mediterranean and Boreal regions, show that the policymakers, experts and stakeholders' actions are not enough, and a 360º citizens engagement is urgently needed. Therefore, we need to learn from the good experience in citizens' engagement in climate change action and build up citizens` supporting infrastructure for climate adaptation measures to help the 150 European regions and local communities to resist. Climate assemblies and Living labs are considered as sustainable and reasonable tools to stimulate deliberative democracy in climate policymaking. The ambition of the current project is to support a transformation to climate resilience by offering an innovative problem-oriented climate adoption Toolbox, co-designed together with stakeholders by applying a values-based approach, design thinking methods and citizen science mechanisms. It is expected that the use of the Toolbox will anticipate possible tensions, points of controversy and dilemmas vis-a-vis the adaptation to resilience - therefore enabling empowerment and engagement strategies that produce a society ""resilient by design"". In addition, CLIMAS will include the empirical component for testing this Toolbox and formulating scientific-based guidelines for policymakers on how to shift Climate Assemblies from technically based deliberations that belong to climate change experts to multi-stakeholders deliberations based on solving the dilemmas from a bottom-up, more societal and value-based perspective.." "Archaeology, art and coastal heritage - tools to support coastal management and climate change planning across the Channel Regional Sea (ARCH-MANCHE)." "Marc De Batist" "Department of Geology" "The Arch-Manche project will demonstrate how archaeology, art and maritime coastal heritage can be used to show long-term patterns of coastal change and the impact on human settlement. Study of this data allows understanding and modelling of past reactions to climate change to help with planning for the future." "Enhancing Capacity for Climate Change Resilience in Nakuru, Kenya through an AI-based Monitoring and Early Warning System for Climate Change Induced Air Pollution" "Sofie Pollin" "Waves: Core Research and Engineering (WaveCore), Department of Social and Cultural Anthropology" "Our primary aim is to enhance climate change resilience in Nakuru through supporting local AI-enabled innovative forecasting of climate-change induced air pollution that supports effective climate adaptation strategies in line with Nakuru's Climate Change Act, the National Climate Change Plan 2023 – 2027 and Sustainable Energy Access and Climate Action Plan (SEACAP). This project thrives on a collaboration between experts in data science, anthropology and citizen engagement from KU Leuven and environmental science at Egerton University in Kenya. They will liaise with various stakeholders such as the broader RESPIRA expert network pioneering transdisciplinary action-research to mitigate chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) on the African continent, the Kenyan based Sensors.Africa, a citizen-science focused project by Code for Africa that seeks to address data gaps by providing low cost sensors for environmental assessments, the Kenya Meteorological Society, the Belgian specialist in citizen engagement ‘Voices That Count’ and data visualisation experts from the Belgian company XYZT. Building on our strategic collaborations, the project is structured to:- technical Skill Enhancement: Strengthen the Nakuru Meteorological Department by integrating advanced data-science algorithms and cutting-edge AI technologies. This will improve the department's ability to predictclimate change induced air pollution and enhance their impact assessment and vulnerability analysis capabilities.- evidence-Based Policy Development: Engage with various stakeholders to refine and expand regional climate-focused policies in Nakuru. These policies will be based on solid scientific evidence and input.- maximisation of AI-Driven Insights: Utilise the AI platform to its full potential for better adaptation strategies regarding climate change induced increases in air pollution and other interrelated climate change parameters.The project will also contribute to increased public awareness about the relationship between climate change and air pollution, emphasising their causes and effects.Our initiative is a cornerstone of Nakuru's long-term climate adaptation strategy. By harnessing advanced data and AI, we aim to fortify infrastructure and decision-making processes against evolving climate threats.Enhancing public awareness ensures community participation in these efforts. Our focus on air pollution safeguards public health, while collaborations with diverse stakeholders provide Nakuru with acomprehensive approach to climate adaptation, ultimately ensuring a more climate change resilient future for Nakuru residents." "Climate change and the legitimacy challenge. An empirical investigation into the threat of climate change to perceived democratic legitimacy and potential procedural solutions." "Sofie Marien" "Centre for Political Research" "Climate change poses a challenge for democratic governance: On the one hand, it is essential to get citizens on board with transformative policy decisions to deal with climate change. On the other hand, citizens might start to question the legitimacy of democratic institutions and demand new types of governance if they feel that existing institutions cannot adequately protect them from the consequences of climate change. This presents a challenge to perceived democratic legitimacy. In this project, I connect literatures on environmental political theory, environmental psychology and democratic innovation to first study this legitimacy challenge posed by climate change and second, to investigate the potential of procedural reform to strengthen the perceived legitimacy of climate policy and democratic institutions. Especially two types of procedural reform are investigated: participatory processes that involve citizens (for instance through climate assemblies) and expert-based processes (for instance expert commissions). Using a survey (WP1) and a survey experiment (WP2) I will study how the threat of climate change affects the perceived legitimacy of climate policies and democratic institutions and (anti)democratic preferences of citizens. Further, I will test whether procedural reforms can address these perceived legitimacy deficits using a survey experiment (WP3) and an in-depth study of a real life example of a participatory process: a global climate assembly (WP4).  "