Title Affiliations Abstract "Public health decision making with stochastic individual-based models: a translational framework driven by advances in health economics, model inference and reinforcement learning (ACCELERATE)" "Centre for Statistics" "This project proposes a methodological framework in the context of respiratory pathogens with pandemic potential, based on historical data of SARS-CoV-2. Clustered social contact patterns have been pivotal in combination with stochasticity to explain disease spread and heterogeneous behaviour. Therefore, we focus on mathematical models that accommodate heterogeneity in infection acquisition and additional randomness at the individual level. However, estimation of key epidemiological parameters based on stochastic and computationally intensive individual-based models is challenging. Especially when we focus on multiple outcomes, which is required when evaluating the health economic impact of preventive measures. A coarse-grained cost-effectiveness analysis is possible through individual-based modelling, yet complicated by a cascade of uncertainties and stochasticity in the underlying disease process. The availability of options to define the most (cost-)effective scenario requires multi-criteria selection techniques. Machine learning methods have been proven useful for this, however, this complex modelling context requires progressive algorithms. Informing the decision making process is particularly challenging in an epidemic setting with unexpected events such as the emergence of new variants of concern. We aim to accelerate decision making in the next pandemic with a public health framework grounded in advanced statistics, health economics and computer sciences." "Public health decision making with stochastic individual-based models: a translational framework driven by advances in health economics, model inference and reinforcement learning (ACCELERATE)" "Lander Willem" "Hasselt University, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Primary and interdisciplinary care Antwerp (ELIZA)" "This project proposes a methodological framework in the context of respiratory pathogens with pandemic potential, based on historical data of SARS-CoV-2. Clustered social contact patterns have been pivotal in combination with stochasticity to explain disease spread and heterogeneous behaviour. Therefore, we focus on mathematical models that accommodate heterogeneity in infection acquisition and additional randomness at the individual level. However, estimation of key epidemiological parameters based on stochastic and computationally intensive individual-based models is challenging. Especially when we focus on multiple outcomes, which is required when evaluating the health economic impact of preventive measures. A coarse-grained cost-effectiveness analysis is possible through individual-based modelling, yet complicated by a cascade of uncertainties and stochasticity in the underlying disease process. The availability of options to define the most (cost-)effective scenario requires multi-criteria selection techniques. Machine learning methods have been proven useful for this, however, this complex modelling context requires progressive algorithms. Informing the decision making process is particularly challenging in an epidemic setting with unexpected events such as the emergence of new variants of concern. We aim to accelerate decision making in the next pandemic with a public health framework grounded in advanced statistics, health economics and computer sciences." "Public health decision making with stochastic individual-based models: a translational framework driven by advances in health economics, model inference and reinforcement learning" "Pieter Libin" "Informatics and Applied Informatics" "This project proposes a methodological framework in the context of respiratory pathogens with pandemic potential, based on historical data of SARS-CoV-2. Clustered social contact patterns have been pivotal in combination with stochasticity to explain disease spread and heterogeneous behaviour. Therefore, we focus on mathematical models that accommodate heterogeneity in infection acquisition and additional randomness at the individual level. However, estimation of key epidemiological parameters based on stochastic and computationally intensive individual-based models is challenging. Especially when we focus on multiple outcomes, which is required when evaluating the health economic impact of preventive measures. A coarse-grained cost-effectiveness analysis is possible through individual-based modelling, yet complicated by a cascade of uncertainties and stochasticity in the underlying disease process. The availability of options to define the most (cost-)effective scenario requires multi-criteria selection techniques. Machine learning methods have been proven useful for this, however, this complex modelling context requires progressive algorithms. Informing the decision making process is particularly challenging in an epidemic setting with unexpected events such as the emergence of new variants of concern. We aim to accelerate decision making in the next pandemic with a public health framework grounded in advanced statistics, health economics and computer sciences" "Travel grant for foreign participation in Congress 'Workshop on the Law and Economics of Health Care' in Prague" "Wim MARNEFFE" "Economics and Public Policy" "Over the last decades, medical malpractice issues of all kind have been the centrepiece of an entire strand of law and economics literature. Early research often emerged from the medical liability insurance crises in the 1970s and 1980s in the US. Scholars intensively examined the shortcomings of fault-based compensation systems for health care-related injuries, which posed problems for both physicians and patients. In order to overcome these shortcomings, the United States introduced statutory tort reforms on a state level, e.g. putting caps on attorneys' fees and limiting collateral source rules. The Nordic countries, New Zealand, France and Belgium adopted different types of no-fault compensation systems for medical incidents. Unlike the US tort reforms, the societal effects of these no-fault initiatives are hardly studied before." "The stride towards health economic evaluation with individual-based models integrating transmission dynamics, stochasticity and uncertainty." "Philippe Beutels" "Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CHERMID)" "Background – Infectious diseases have substantial impact on society and model-based health economic evaluation has acquired prominence for policy making. Stochastic individual-based models, in which each individual is modelled separately, are highly relevant to capture heterogeneities in social contacts patterns and transmission dynamics. Although they are suitable to predict disease burden and medical costs in detail, they are not fully exploited yet due to model complexity and computational burden. Aim – To improve health economic evaluations with stochastic individual-based disease transmission models while accounting for uncertainty. Methods – To advance from a C++ simulator towards a new platform for health economic evaluation, ""rStride"" in the widely used R software. This open-source package will integrate high-performant transmission modelling and state-of-the-art uncertainty analysis. Expected results – (1) New and improved individual-based modelling methods on demography and transmission dynamics. (2) Insights on the effect of social mixing assumptions on the estimated burden of disease. (3) The integration of stochastic effects from individual-based transmission models within uncertainty analysis in economic evaluations. (4) Long-term model predictions, including household dynamics, to explore between- and within-host dynamics. All methods will be applied to case studies on Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and Varicella-Zoster Virus (VZV)." "Including uncertainty from transmission-dynamic models in health economic evaluations: applications for rotavirus and typhoid fever vaccination." "Philippe Beutels" "Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CHERMID), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO)" "BACKGROUND: Dynamic models and sensitivity analysis are valued as crucial to inform decision makers on the cost-effectiveness of interventions against infectious diseases. But currently, sensitivity analyses fail to account for the uncertainty from dynamic models, as such overestimating the confidence in the cost-effectiveness estimate and potentially setting wrong priorities for future research. AIM: To include the uncertainty from transmission-dynamic models in health economic evaluations based on these models. METHODS: We will conduct health economic evaluations of vaccination against rotavirus in Belgium and typhoid in low-income countries, based on existing transmission-dynamic models, and will use probabilistic methods to incorporate the estimated uncertainty from the dynamic models. EXPECTED RESULTS: Identification of the factors that are most influential for (1) the cost- effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Belgium when accounting for herd immunity and potential serotype replacement, and (2) the cost-effectiveness of implementing the newly developed typhoid vaccine strategies in low-income countries. (3) Software tool that allows for easy re- assessment of cost-effectiveness and future research priorities when new information becomes available. (4) Recommendations on how to apply different types of sensitivity analysis in the context of health economic evaluations based on dynamic disease transmission models." "Individual behaviour and extra-utilitarian ethics in health economic evaluation: an individual-based modelling approach for measles elimination." "Philippe Beutels" "Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO)" "The overall aim of this project is to develop a framework for model-based economic evaluation in which people's behaviour influences the transmission of infection and vaccine uptake in different parts of the population, and which includes currently ignored ethical considerations. While this framework would be elaborated for infectious diseases with a specific focus on elimination, it willhave many basic characteristics, which can be transferred to other areas of public health where risks and risk perceptions are communicable and have behavioural consequences (eg, the spread of obesity, physical exercise, compliance with screening programmes etc)." "Critical revision of the management guidelines for non-melanoma skin cancer from a public health & economic perspective." "Lieve Brochez" "Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Department of Head and Skin" "Skin cancer is by far the most frequent cancer worldwide and we modeled that the number of skin cancer patients will triple over the next 20 years. Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is responsible for about 90% of all skin cancers and originate from keratinocytes, called basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC)). The remaining 10% of skin cancers are melanomas, arising from malignant degeneration of melanocytes and are responsible for more than 400 deaths a year in Belgium. Based on our previous research, a high economic burden of skin cancer in Belgium resulted in a total of €107 million in 2014 and a cumulative cost that will add up to €3.2 billion by 2034. Although they have a relatively benign course, NMSC account for 35.2% of these costs. Since their number and cost is predicted to triple by 2034 an evidence-based health economic approach is needed. Screening the population for NMSC does not add to lowering their cost. It is also clear that there is a lack of studies evaluating the health and cost-effectiveness balance of NMSC treatment and follow-up guidelines. With this project we will map the impact of NMSC on the quality of life, and characterise the natural behaviour of basal cell carcinomas in elderly. This will allow us to propose more cost-effective treatment procedures and follow-up regimens for these patients. The overall  goal is to develop high standard, quality of life- centred guidelines within the current budgetary constraints." "The state's obligation to protect economic and social rights against violations by transnational corporations: health litigation in a context of resource extraction." "Transnational corporations (TNCs) are in principle not directly bound by human rights norms, but states are obliged to protect the rights of their citizens against violations by TNCs. However, as developing countries want to maintain an attractive investment climate, they do not appropriately regulate the activities of TNCs. The project analyzes whether the obligation to protect can be enforced through litigation." "Aha BOOST. Arm-hand BOOST therapy to enhance recovery after stroke: clinical, health economic and process evaluation" "Geert Verheyden" "Research Group for Neurorehabilitation (eNRGy), Jessa Ziekenhuis, Vrije Universiteit Brussel" "The arm-hand BOOST (Aha BOOST) project will deliver robust evidence of clinical and cost - effectiveness of additional arm-hand therapy for selected patients attending inpatient stroke rehabilitation. The utilisation goals of these results are threefold:1. Driving the implementation of Aha BOOST as part of stroke healthcare.2. Producing a realisation blueprint for effectively achieving integration of Aha BOOST in rehabilitation centre management.3. Providing post-graduate training to teams of physio- and occupational therapists to provide the skills to deliver Aha BOOST.The ultimate aim of the project is to implement Aha BOOST as standard care in the clinical setting.This will require recognition of Aha BOOST therapy by the health coverage in order for rehabilitation centers to implement this therapy. We are realistic in terms of timeframe; we do not foresee this implementation happening during or shortly after the four-year project and hence this is our mediumterm strategy. Nevertheless, it is one of our utilisation aims during the project to prepare a dossier which argues for this implementation"