Spatial distribution of soil moisture in Mongolia using SMAP and MODIS satellite data : a time series model (2010-2025)

Soil moisture is one of the essential variables of the water cycle, and plays a vital role in agriculture, water management, and land (drought) and vegetation cover change as well as climate change studies. The spatial distribution of soil moisture with high-resolution images in Mongolia has long been one of the essential issues in the remote sensing and agricultural community. In this research, we focused on the distribution of soil moisture and compared the monthly precipitation/temperature and crop yield from 2010 to 2020. In the present study, Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were used, including the MOD13A2 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), MOD11A2 Land Surface Temperature (LST), and precipitation/temperature monthly data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) from 2010 to 2020 over Mongolia. Multiple linear regression methods have previously been used for soil moisture estimation, and in this study, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Arima (ARIMA) model was used for soil moisture forecasting. The results show that the correlation was statistically significant between SM-MOD and soil moisture content (SMC) from the meteorological stations at different depths (p < 0.0001 at 0-20 cm and p < 0.005 at 0-50 cm). The correlation between SM-MOD and temperature, as represented by the correlation coefficient (r), was 0.80 and considered statistically significant (p < 0.0001). However, when SM-MOD was compared with the crop yield for each year (2010-2019), the correlation coefficient (r) was 0.84. The ARIMA (12, 1, 12) model was selected for the soil moisture time series analysis when predicting soil moisture from 2020 to 2025. The forecasting results are shown for the 95 percent confidence interval. The soil moisture estimation approach and model in our study can serve as a valuable tool for confident and convenient observations of agricultural drought for decision-makers and farmers in Mongolia.

Publication year:2021

Accessibility:Open