Short-term Prognostic Value of Heart Failure Diagnosis in a Contemporary Cohort of Patients With Adult Congenital Heart Disease

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is the primary cause of premature death in adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). This study aimed to describe the impact of a HF diagnosis on short-term prognosis and to investigate the added prognostic value of an HF diagnosis to the ACHD Anatomic and Physiologic classification (ACHD-AP). METHODS: This study included 3995 patients followed in a tertiary care centre (last follow-up after January 1, 2010). Survival curves were plotted, and predictors of the primary end point (death, heart transplantation, or ventricular assist device [VAD]) were identified with the use of Cox proportional hazard models and compared with the use of Harrell's C-statistic. RESULTS: Mean age at baseline was 35.7 ± 13.3 years. The prevalence of ACHD-HF was 6.4%. During a median follow-up of 3.1 years (IQR 2.1-3.6 years), 27.3% of ACHD-HF patients reached the primary end point, compared with 1.4% of ACHD patients without HF. Event-free survivals were 78.3%, 61.9%, and 57.5% at 1, 3, and 5 years in ACHD-HF patients, compared with 99.3%, 98.3%, and 98.0% in ACHD patients without HF (P < 0.001). An HF diagnosis (HR 6.9, 95% CI 4.3-11.2) and the physiologic classification (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.9-3.7) were independently associated with the primary end point. The addition of HF to the ACHD-AP classification yielded a Harrell's C-index of 0.8631, providing a significant improvement over the ACHD-AP classification alone (P = 0.0003). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of mortality, transplantation, or VAD is increased in ACHD-HF patients. An HF diagnosis appears to be a valuable prognostic marker in addition to the ACHD-AP classification.

Publication year:2023

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