Modelling the distribution of key tree species used by lion tamarins in the Brazilian Atlantic forest under a scenario of future climate change

We used three IPCC climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) in a dynamic vegetation model (CARAIB), to determine the potential future distribution of 75 tree species used by two endemic primate species from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF). Habitat conservation is a vital part of strategies to protect endangered species, and this is a new approach to understanding how key plant species needed for survival of golden lion tamarins (Leontopithecus rosalia) and golden-headed lion tamarins (L. chrysomelas) might be affected by climate change and what changes to their distribution are likely. The model accurately predicted the current distribution of BAF vegetation types, for 66 % of the individual tree species with 70 % agreement obtained for presence. In the simulation experiments for the future, 72 out of 75 tree species maintained more than 95 % of their original distribution and all species showed a range expansion. At the biome level, we note a substantial decrease in the sub-tropical forest area. There is some fragmentation of the savannah, which is encroached mostly by tropical seasonal forest. Where the current distribution shows a large sub-tropical forest biome, it has been replaced or encroached by tropical rainforest. The results suggested that the trees may benefit from an increase in temperature, if and only if soil water availability is not altered significantly, as was the case with climate simulations that were used. However, these results must be coupled with other information to maximise usefulness to conservation since BAF is already highly fragmented and subject to high anthropic pressure.

Publication year:2014

Keywords:Conservation, Climate change, Modelling, Brazilian Atlantic Forest, Lion tamarins, Dynamic vegetation model (DVMs)