Decision Support under Uncertainty for Geothermal Applications (DESIGNATE). (DESIGNATE)

In order to meet climate goals and provide energy security, geothermal energy can play an important part in the energy production portfolio. The current implementation of geothermal energy in Belgium is very limited and making accurate predictions about its economic potential is difficult clue to large uncertainties. The DESIGNATE project will develop tools and workflows for investigating the potential of deep geothermal energy and geothermal applications in abandoned mines in Belgium, while considering uncertainty at reservoir, technology and economic level. The classical approach of using a limited number of numerical reservoir simulations as input into economic models often falls short in the fields of uncertainties, investment risk and regional energy and environmental simulations. Analytical models can provide fast and continuous results with an accurate representation of uncertainty into techno-economic and environmental models. The DESIGNATE project will develop analytical models for different geological settings and technological applications. This becomes challenging when stepping away from simple well designs and homogenous reservoirs, and including uncertainty. These analytical models will provide direct input for a geological techno-economic assessment (G-TEA) and a territorial life cycle assessment (LCA). The G-TEA wi ll include decision tree analysis and Real Options analysis for allowing flexible adjustment to uncertainty. The territorial LCA approach will include determining impacts on the surface and subsurface, with a time and spatial aspect. Both G-TEA and LCA results will be coupled to provide a full overview of impacts of geothermal projects. In parallel, the current version of the Policy Support System (PSS) for geological C02 storage will be converted to make integrated forecasts under uncertainty on the deployment of geothermal projects in a regional context. PSS Geothermal will simulate making investment decisions on geotherma l projects by using optionality and nested Monte Carlo calculations for limited foresight. Project development is simulated considering the analytical reservoir models as resource, the technical and economic aspects of project development, heat transport,energy demand, energy market and the policy framework. A highly multi-disciplinary approach is necessary to successfully complete this integration.

Keywords:UNCERTAINTY, INVESTMENT DECISIONS, RENEWABLE ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

Disciplines:Agricultural and natural resource economics, environmental and ecological economics

Project type:Collaboration project