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Publication

Take a chance on me: An investigation of children's early probabilistic reasoning abilities

Book - Dissertation

Fostering probabilistic reasoning is typically not recognized as an important learning goal in the standards for early grade (mathematical) education in (western) countries. This is remarkable, given the fact that in our modern world the number of choices or options and associated risks and opportunities seem unlimited. But what if early instruction in more advanced mathematical competencies, like probabilistic reasoning, might actually help children to thrive as better decision makers in our often complex and uncertain world? The lack of probability as a subject in many elementary school curricula might be explained by several factors. First, Piaget and Inhelder (1951/1975) concluded that the complete understanding of the probability concept can only be achieved in the formal operational stage after children acquired proportional and combinatorial schemes. This might have caused curriculum designers to defer the introduction of probability. Second, later research on probabilistic reasoning of young children seems rather heterogeneous with different studies focusing on different components of probability that are operationalized in various ways, leading to seemingly divergent conclusions. This might have hindered the translation of different findings into a unifying framework, accessible for educators. The absence of such a framework might also be explained by the fact that cross-sectional studies dominate in research on the development and stimulation of probabilistic reasoning in young children. The combined use of longitudinal and intervention studies seems more apt for the systematic study of the development and teaching of probability. In an attempt to address these research gaps and with the aim of investigating whether an earlier focus on probability in schools is justified, two main studies are conducted for the current PhD project. To conduct these studies, three components of probabilistic reasoning were selected and operationalized. These components include the ability to: (1) distinguish certain from uncertain events, (2) compare probabilities, (3) generate equal probabilities. In the longitudinal study, we will map the development of these different components of probabilistic reasoning in children between the age of 5 to 9 over four time points. Furthermore, we will analyze the predictive value of other mathematical (e.g., numerical, proportional reasoning, mathematical language) abilities for children's probabilistic reasoning abilities. In the intervention study, we will use insights from the longitudinal study to stimulate children's probabilistic reasoning abilities. This intervention will take place in the second grade of elementary school. Children will receive pre- and posttests assessing probabilistic and proportional reasoning abilities, which also gives us the opportunity to draw links between both of these mathematical domains.
Publication year:2022
Accessibility:Closed