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Project
Resilient Mobility Strategies for Uncertain Futures in Brussels (BRGEOZ401)
Owing to its profound impacts on the environment, society, public budget and the long-term character of
investments, mobility policy needs to be embedded in a well-grounded vision of the future. The recent
pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of the mobility system to external shocks both in terms of having a
significant impact on the pathways towards the sustainability visions (i.e. short- and long-term reconfiguration
of the modal split) as well as being an instrument helping our way through and out of the pandemic (e.g.
provision of accessibility to essential services). Current mobility visions for Brussels present a well-founded
vision and pathways to attain the ideals of sustainable mobility, but do not take into account systemic
uncertainties and shocks. The goal of this project is therefore to build scenarios, visions and a strategy-building
tool to foster the robustness of Brussels mobility policy making to these systemic uncertainties and shocks.
The project addresses the following questions: 1) which key uncertainties are most impactful for mobility in
Brussels in 2030 and 2050? How do they affect one another and how can we assemble them into plausible
scenarios? 2) How resilient are the existing visions for the Brussels mobility system? 3) What strategies are
robust in the face of the different scenarios? 4) What are the impacts of these strategies for different members
of society? 5) What visions can be imagined as combinations of the strategies and scenarios for the years 2030
and 2050?
To address these questions, the project will 1) determine plausible explorative scenarios based on the different
directions in which factors of fundamental uncertainties might evolve, 2) formulate coherent strategies that
are adequate and robust in the face of these scenarios, 3) assess and compare the social, economic and
ecological impacts of the strategies through a participatory appraisal that takes into account the unequal
impacts for relevant stakeholders and members of society, 4) develop a user-friendly dynamic tool, with which
decision makers can instantly react to new crises to reassess the adequacy of their strategies, and 5) create
awareness and spark the imagination of decision makers and citizens through visual and tangible expressions
of the scenarios, visions and impacts. The key results include scenarios, strategies and visions to foster robust
mobility policy, but also a novel scenario-strategy-building method, which will be concretised in a novel
software application
investments, mobility policy needs to be embedded in a well-grounded vision of the future. The recent
pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of the mobility system to external shocks both in terms of having a
significant impact on the pathways towards the sustainability visions (i.e. short- and long-term reconfiguration
of the modal split) as well as being an instrument helping our way through and out of the pandemic (e.g.
provision of accessibility to essential services). Current mobility visions for Brussels present a well-founded
vision and pathways to attain the ideals of sustainable mobility, but do not take into account systemic
uncertainties and shocks. The goal of this project is therefore to build scenarios, visions and a strategy-building
tool to foster the robustness of Brussels mobility policy making to these systemic uncertainties and shocks.
The project addresses the following questions: 1) which key uncertainties are most impactful for mobility in
Brussels in 2030 and 2050? How do they affect one another and how can we assemble them into plausible
scenarios? 2) How resilient are the existing visions for the Brussels mobility system? 3) What strategies are
robust in the face of the different scenarios? 4) What are the impacts of these strategies for different members
of society? 5) What visions can be imagined as combinations of the strategies and scenarios for the years 2030
and 2050?
To address these questions, the project will 1) determine plausible explorative scenarios based on the different
directions in which factors of fundamental uncertainties might evolve, 2) formulate coherent strategies that
are adequate and robust in the face of these scenarios, 3) assess and compare the social, economic and
ecological impacts of the strategies through a participatory appraisal that takes into account the unequal
impacts for relevant stakeholders and members of society, 4) develop a user-friendly dynamic tool, with which
decision makers can instantly react to new crises to reassess the adequacy of their strategies, and 5) create
awareness and spark the imagination of decision makers and citizens through visual and tangible expressions
of the scenarios, visions and impacts. The key results include scenarios, strategies and visions to foster robust
mobility policy, but also a novel scenario-strategy-building method, which will be concretised in a novel
software application
Date:1 Oct 2021 → Today
Keywords:mobility, scenario planning, policy packaging, stakeholder participation, system dynamics
Disciplines:Infrastructure, transport and mobility engineering not elsewhere classified