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Analysing the trend over time of antibiotic consumption in the community: a tutorial on the detection of common change-points

Journal Contribution - Journal Article

OBJECTIVES: This tutorial describes and illustrates statistical methods to detect time trends possibly including abrupt changes (referred to as change-points) in the consumption of antibiotics in the community. METHODS: For the period 1997-2017, data on consumption of antibacterials for systemic use (ATC group J01) in the community, aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology and expressed in DDD (ATC/DDD index 2019) per 1000 inhabitants per day. Trends over time and presence of common change-points were studied through a set of non-linear mixed models. RESULTS: After a thorough description of the set of models used to assess the time trend and presence of common change-points herein, the methodology was applied to the consumption of antibacterials for systemic use (ATC J01) in 25 EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries. The best fit was obtained for a model including two change-points: one in the first quarter of 2004 and one in the last quarter of 2008. CONCLUSIONS: Allowing for the inclusion of common change-points improved model fit. Individual countries investigating changes in their antibiotic consumption pattern can use this tutorial to analyse their country data.
Journal: The Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy
ISSN: 0305-7453
Issue: 12 Suppl 2
Volume: 76
Pages: 79 - 85
Publication year:2021
BOF-keylabel:yes
IOF-keylabel:yes
BOF-publication weight:6
CSS-citation score:3
Authors:International
Authors from:Higher Education
Accessibility:Open