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Project

Using dynamic microsimulation as an integrated modelling framework to assess the impact of individual-level and contextual factors on past and future fertility trends.

Low fertility levels in European countries since the 1970s have been a major force contributing to population ageing. Several individual-level and contextual factors have been proposed to explain changing patterns of fertility, with increasing education and labour force participation, variation in economic cycles and lack of supportive policies in many countries figuring prominently. With the increase of migration since the late 1990s, the potential impact of migrant populations on aggregate fertility trends has recently received increasing attention. While there has been no shortage of candidate causal factors, no integrated modelling framework has hitherto been developed to investigate the interplay between these factors and to assess the actual contribution of various factors to change in aggregate fertility trends. This project aims to improve our understanding of how educational careers and migration background shape fertility, and how these characteristics interact with each other, but also with varying economic and policy contexts. The project integrates models of entry into parenthood and subsequent family formation into a dynamic microsimulation framework that allows to assess the sensitivity of aggregate fertility trends to variation in economic and policy contexts, while acknowledging the constraining effect of population structures that have been shaped by past demographic trends.
Date:1 Jan 2021 →  Today
Keywords:EDUCATIONAL CAREER, MICROSIMULATIONS, MIGRATION, FERTILITY
Disciplines:Family and household studies, Fertility, Migration, Population trends and policies, Sociological methodology and research methods