Understanding the emergence of consumer-centric energy systems: an agent-based modeling approach

Advances in electricity generation and storage technology, as well as in Information and Communication Technology, have led to a rapid increase of prosumers. This increase in the number of prosumers is driving the proliferation of new consumer-centric energy systems (CCESs). Nevertheless, the emergence of these systems raises a series of challenges that cut across technical, institutional, economic, and social dimensions. A lack of a research approach enabling a richer description of the social dimension of consumer-centric energy systems, without sacrificing the desirable rigor of formal analysis, contributes to that several critical knowledge gaps explaining the emergence and evolution of these energy systems remain unresolved.

This research proposal aims to contribute towards the understanding of the emergence and evolution of CCESs. The central research question is: Under which circumstances do CCESs tend to emerge and which factors shape the evolution of these systems?

Unlike methods reported in the literature, this research will develop methods that account for the socio-technical nature of CCESs. We envisioned a computational framework that allows the exploration of the conditions that lead to the emergence and evolution of CCESs. Improving our understanding of how CCESs come into being and evolve may help policymakers and market participants to efficiently steer the development of CCESs in real-world initiatives.