Black ravens, white shoes and scientific evidence : the Ravens Paradox and/in scientific practice

1BLACK RAVENS, WHITE SHOES AND SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE.THE RAVENS PARADOX AND/IN SCIENTIFIC PRACTICEErik Weber, Mathieu Beirlaen&Inge De BalCentre for Logic and Philosophy of ScienceGhent University (UGent)Blandijnberg 2, B-9000 Gent , BelgiumAbstractA well-known consequence of Hempel’s account of confirmation is the RavensParadox. In this paper we discuss this paradox from the viewpointof scientific practice. The main worry, when looking at this paradox from a scientific practiceperspective, is that it seems to lead to problematic methodological advice for scientists: it seems to licence ‘indoor ornithology’. We show that this problematic advice only follows from Hempel’s account if one adoptsa suboptimal viewof what counts as evidence for anhypothesis. We present and defend a more sophisticated viewof what counts as evidence, whichtakesrandom sampling–an important methodological principle in scientific practice–into account. On this sophisticated view, the problematic methodological advice connected tothe RavensParadox is avoided.

Publication year:2020

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