Market and profit analysis of illicit indoor cannabis culivation and trade.

Since 2005, there has been a substantial increase in cannabis production in Belgium. The plantations have also become increasingly larger and more professional, leading to generally higher yields. The large-scale plantations are mostly connected to Dutch criminal groups, Dutch growshops and the Dutch retail market (Colman et al., 2018). The Belgian cannabis yield and price estimates, first developed in the project YILCAN, should thus be updated and aligned with indoor cannabis yield estimates in the Netherlands.

Law enforcement agencies in Belgium and the Netherlands continue to seek up-to-date tools to determine the magnitude of the profits derived from illicit cannabis production and trade, to impose financial penalties that are in line with changes in the production and criminal market environment.

Therefor this study aims (1) to provide a updated yield estimates for the different types of indoor cannabis cultivation in Belgium; (2) to estimate prices, revenues and profits at the main levels of the Belgian cannabis supply chain, i.e., “farmgate,” wholesale, middle and retail level, and to understand the factors influencing these prices, revenues and profits and (3) to develop a practical tool for law enforcement actors to determine the revenues and profits related to the cannabis market.