Modelling the effect of climate change and anthropogenic factors on Fynbos health and functioning using remote sensing

Throughout human history, finding the balance between man and the biosphere has been a continuous struggle. How do we preserve the environment, while simultaneously using its natural resources for the improvement of human livelihoods? In a developing country such as South Africa, where natural capital plays a key role in tackling various socio-economic issues, addressing this development problem is of particular importance. A key local application area where this comes into play is the conservation and sustainable use of the Fynbos biome in South Africa. In addition to being a biodiversity hotspot, the Fynbos biome provides essential ecosystem services such as carbon storage, nutrient cycling and water production. Fynbos vegetation is, furthermore, of critical importance to the sustainable economic prosperity and development of local communities. These economic benefits are embodied in medicinal and culinary use, honey manufacturing, export of flowers and eco-tourism. Large-scale climate variations, however, can have severe negative effects on Fynbos vegetation. Climate change, for instance, results in anomalous periods of drought and the increased severity and frequency of wildfires, which hinders the regeneration of Fynbos plant communities. Habitat removal due to plantations, agriculture, urbanisation and the proliferation of invasive alien plant species leads to further loss of Fynbos area and also impacts detrimentally on the Fynbos water catchment areas. The loss of quality Fynbos due to climate change and human intervention is, however, not only detrimental to ecosystem biodiversity and the environment (i.e. biosphere), but also threatens the economic prospects of the residing communities (i.e. man). Better understanding of the complex interactions between climate change, anthropogenic drivers and ecosystem functioning/health is thus key in finding the balance between man and the biosphere. This challenge of improving the human-environmental relationship is not only a local development problem, but also a global one. Despite substantial ecological research on the Fynbos biome, there is still a lack of understanding on how Fynbos functioning and health is affected by climate change and anthropogenic drivers. This project aims to target this problem through the innovative combination of satellite imagery, big data analytics and machine learning to model and understand the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic factors on Fynbos functioning and health.