Climatic and socioeconomic drivers of future floods over Europe: moving towards a proactive disaster risk reduction

Due to the high computational cost of large-scale flood simulations and data limitation or low resolution of the information for future vulnerability components, flood risk studies are limited. Furthermore, the existing studies lack a comprehensive vulnerability assessment, considering social, cultural, economic, physical and environmental aspects. To address these knowledge and methodological gaps, this research develops a multi-dimensional, integrative and holistic framework for future flood risk assessments over Europe. Flood intensity and frequency are determined using several global hydrological models based on the climate data from the CMIP6 GCMs. A combined exposure-vulnerability index is developed, and then integrated with the flood hazards for the risk assessment under different combinations of future emission and socioeconomic scenarios.

Keywords:Flood, Climate change, Socioeconomic developments, Disaster risk reduction

Disciplines:Water engineering not elsewhere classified