The geographically asymmetric impact of Brexit

Much has been made of the economic disruption that Brexit will entail. Whenever the transition period comes to an end, the economic pain that has thus far been mostly hypothetical will become a reality. However, what is not as widely understood is that this pain will be distributed highly asymmetrically, both across and within EU member states. This asymmetry will likely affect the bargaining dynamics on the future EU-UK relationship amongst the EU27, as well as their domestic politics and evolving perceptions of European integration. Furthermore, the disruptive consequences of Brexit will be compounded by the economic shock triggered by the COVID-19 outbreak. This toxic combination sets the stage for intense political turbulence. This chapter aims to shed clarity on how the political and economic fallout from Brexit will settle within the EU. Firstly, it maps out the existing asymmetries across different member states. Secondly, it dissects how geographical asymmetries can play out at the regional level within individual member states. Finally, it argues that Brexit will reverberate differently across political constituencies at the national and European levels, fuelling polarisation in terms of political agenda-setting

Keywords:Brexit, EU, UK, diplomacy

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