Including uncertainty from transmission-dynamic models in health economic evaluations: applications for rotavirus and typhoid fever vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Dynamic models and sensitivity analysis are valued as crucial to inform decision makers on the cost-effectiveness of interventions against infectious diseases. But currently, sensitivity analyses fail to account for the uncertainty from dynamic models, as such overestimating the confidence in the cost-effectiveness estimate and potentially setting wrong priorities for future research. AIM: To include the uncertainty from transmission-dynamic models in health economic evaluations based on these models. METHODS: We will conduct health economic evaluations of vaccination against rotavirus in Belgium and typhoid in low-income countries, based on existing transmission-dynamic models, and will use probabilistic methods to incorporate the estimated uncertainty from the dynamic models. EXPECTED RESULTS: Identification of the factors that are most influential for (1) the cost- effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Belgium when accounting for herd immunity and potential serotype replacement, and (2) the cost-effectiveness of implementing the newly developed typhoid vaccine strategies in low-income countries. (3) Software tool that allows for easy re- assessment of cost-effectiveness and future research priorities when new information becomes available. (4) Recommendations on how to apply different types of sensitivity analysis in the context of health economic evaluations based on dynamic disease transmission models.

Keywords:VACCINATION STRATEGIES, ROTAVIRUS

Disciplines:Public health care, Public health sciences, Public health services

Project type:Collaboration project