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Project

Managing forest ecosystem service delivery under climate change: a next generation decision support system.

Climate change has become a major driver of worldwide pervasive shifts in forest ecosystem dynamics. In Europe’s temperate forests, canopy mortality has doubled over the last three decades, with recent drought episodes between 2018 and 2020 exacerbating this trend, triggering die-offs and vitality declines across prominent tree species. However, climate change can also positively impact forest growth through the CO2 fertilization effect and extension of the growing season. This dual influence, coupled with the inherent uncertainties linked to climate change, results in considerable ambiguity surrounding the potential consequences for forest ecosystems and the provision of their critical ecosystem services.

Furthermore, forests and wood products play a major role in climate change mitigation strategies and transitioning from a fossil-based economy to a circular bioeconomy. Therefore, accurate projections of future forest productivity are imperative for projecting forest carbon sequestration and wood availability. This information is vital for developing effective strategies toward achieving a carbon-neutral future.

This dissertation employs a comprehensive modelling approach to forecast the future dynamics of non-managed forests (Chapter 2 & Chapter 3) and the productivity of managed forests (Chapter 4) in Flanders. Moreover, we explored the potential of woody biomass as a catalyst for achieving a carbon-neutral chemical industry (Chapter 5). Using the "iLand" individual-based forest landscape model, our findings illustrated the vulnerability of lowland forests to irreversible shifts in composition and structure when temperature increases exceed 2°C, particularly under reduced precipitation. This transformation leads to a transition from beech-dominated to black pine-dominated forests, manifesting in a remarkable 34% reduction in above-ground biomass and significant canopy loss. Furthermore, natural disturbance impacts, which were previously marginal, increase up to 193% under the hottest and driest climate scenarios. However, beech forests resist these changes when summer precipitation remains stable (Chapter 2).

Delving into the spatially varied response of lowland forests to climate change, our investigation revealed the pivotal role of fine-textured soils in enhancing ecosystem resistance. Drought-sensitive species, like beech, find refuge on these soils, overcoming adverse climatic conditions. Furthermore, the diversity of soil properties augments system resilience with coarse-textured soils accommodating drought-tolerant species, fostering greater species diversity (Chapter 3).

Employing the mechanistic forest growth model "4C," we assessed forest growth responses across diverse soil conditions in Flanders, incorporating these findings into commonly used yield tables (Chapter 4). Our results indicate that forest productivity has, so far, increased under climate change and that this trend will likely persist in the future. Our projections suggest that incorporating such climate change-related productivity changes will lead to a 7% increase in standing stock and a 22% increase in sustainably potentially harvestable woody biomass by 2050. The integration of these growth changes into yield tables carries the potential to determine the success of regional policies in achieving a carbon-neutral circular bioeconomy. However, it is crucial to recognize that these results are sensitive to assumptions regarding the inclusion or exclusion of the CO2 fertilization effect and climate projections. Addressing these uncertainties remains essential for refining future forest biomass predictions.

Finally, we initiate a debate on using woody biomass within the circular economy, specifically focusing on transitioning the carbon-dependent petrochemical industry to a carbon-neutral chemical sector. We concluded that the European chemical industry can become a major consumer of woody biomass without overexploiting European forests, in a context where burning wood for energy production is considered unsustainable. Moreover, we underline that the foundations for linking these industries already exist today.

In summary, our findings underscore the susceptibility of lowland forest ecosystems to irreversible compositional and structural changes under climate change, unless we uphold the commitments outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, forest biomass can also play a pivotal role in meeting these commitments and developing sensible climate mitigation strategies if burning wood for energy production is considered unsustainable.

Date:20 Aug 2018 →  31 Oct 2023
Keywords:ecosystem management, Forest management, Circular bioeconomy, Climate change, Mechanistic modelling
Disciplines:Landscape architecture, Art studies and sciences, Forestry sciences, Ecology, Environmental science and management, Other environmental sciences, Physical geography and environmental geoscience, Communications technology, Geomatic engineering
Project type:PhD project