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Projected population, inequality and social expenditures: the case of Flanders

Journal Contribution - Journal Article

We investigate the budgetary and distributional efffects of a demographic and economic evolution in Flanders between 2011 and 2031. We project demographic changes by means of two multi-state population projections (LiPro-projections), on the basis of which we statically reweigh the EU-SILC 2008 dataset. In addition, we assume a modest real exogenous -meaning not induced by the demographic projections- growth rate of 1%. Population-wise, we find a pronounced ageing, a growth of single-headed households, mostly to the detriment of couples with children, and a closing generational gap in education. While income inequality exhibits a non-monotonous pattern over time (reaching a maximum around 2020), poverty steadily declines after 2011. We find a large increase in expenditures on pensions, which is, however, covered by the modest public income growth we assume, while keeping the tax system constant in real terms.
Journal: The International Journal of Microsimulation
ISSN: 1747-5864
Issue: 3
Volume: 10
Pages: 92 - 133
Publication year:2017
Accessibility:Closed