The Shotgun Method 2.0: estimating population numbers for second century A.D. Sagalassos.

During the last 150 years archaeologists and historians attempted to estimate the population sizes of cities and regions in the past via the application of a large variety of formulae. Most of these formulae were, however, heavily criticised, or had to rely on guesstimates. In 2006, Mogens Herman Hansen presented the ‘shotgun method’ as an alternative. Here, different calculation formulae were applied on the same context and the final result consisted of the total range of all the estimates. These ranges, however, are often too broad to make further inferences. Therefore, this paper aims – in the spirit of the ‘shotgun method’ – at surveying the population estimates to come to distributions which make it possible to select a population range with a specific probability. This refined method makes it possible to calculate both the carrying capacity and the population of a specific region or city. Consequently, inferences can be made on the population pressure and relation between an urban centre and its territory. The ancient site of Sagalassos (SW Anatolia) during the second century A.D. is chosen as a case study to obtain an estimate for the urban and territorial population.

Publication year:2018

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