Spatial analysis of rural-urban migration and its consequences for land use in western Uganda

Social economic developments , including population growth are amongst the factors that influence land use changes. The associated demographic forces including, migration rates, settlement patterns, and the consequent demand for food, energy, and area for settlement, considerably contribute to the alteration of land use/cover. Increasing population density, together with levels of economic and social development, affect the demands that are placed on land and other natural resources. The consequential growing demand for agricultural products especially food, leads to expansion and conversion into arable land. In most agro-ecological zones in Uganda, the land use changes are a result of agriculture extensification into marginal landscapes (Ebanyat et al., 2010), leading into unsustainable form of agricultural production with severe degradation of soil and water resources. For example, River Rwizi in western Uganda has been heavily silted and its catchment destroyed, thus impairing its functioning. The rapid land-use changes and conversion of marginal areas (wetlands, steep slopes, valley bottoms) for agriculture production taking place in the Lake Victoria basin including the upper Rwizi micro-catchment, continue to contribute to land degradation (Wanyama, J., 2012). The conversion of marginal areas into arable land is partly, in response to the increasing demand (derived from the growing population and changing migration patterns) for food, particularly in urban and peri-urban places in the districts of R. Rwizi Catchment and the neighboring districts. Considering that most communities along R. Rwizi and its catchment depend on the constituent natural resources to support their livelihoods, it is necessary to investigate and establish a scientific understanding on how the socio-economic developments, including demographic developments, have influenced land use changes and contributed to the degradation of the River ecosystem. More so, it is important to have a simulation mechanism, based on the socio-economic factors, for the future impacts of land use changes. The generated understanding will inform policy discussions for the restoration of degraded natural resources and contribute to sustainable management of natural resources. The Government of Uganda is focusing on integrated natural resources management system in the wetlands and river catchments and thus, this proposed study will be a major contribution. The study therefore seeks to answer the following questions; 1. How has land use / cover in R. Rwizi catchment changed overtime? How and what are the impacts on the functioning of the river ecosystem? 2. What are the key drivers of the land use changes? What is the role of demographic development on land use change in R. Rwizi Catchment? How do these driving factors impact on the functioning of the R. Rwizi? 3. How does a degraded river ecosystem (current state) impact on population distribution (settlement patterns / rural urbanization) and livelihoods? 4. How to predict future land use change, particularly settlement distribution (rural urbanization patterns) in a river ecosystem?