Explaining candidate turnover in list PR systems: a cross-national analysis of party lists in fourteen established democracies

This project deals with the determinants of candidate turnover on party lists in PR systems. To our knowledge, the level of candidate turnover on party lists has never been studied before in this type of electoral system. As opposed to parliamentary and executive turnover, the circulation and renewal of election candidates on party lists has received very little scholarly attention. Inspired by the political recruitment model developed by Norris (2004), the aim of this project is to identify the determinants of candidate turnover in list proportional electoral systems. In the proposed analytical model, we distinguish between four party-level and three country-level independent variables which, on the basis of theoretical insights, can be assumed to affect candidate turnover levels on party lists. The party variables (i.e. electoral swing, party institutionalization, party size, candidacy requirements,party ideology and voluntary gender quotas) influence the demand and supply of new candidates on party lists of political parties. The contextual variables (i.e. electoral system, party system institutionalization, party system competitiveness and legal gender quotas) will affect the aggregate level of candidate turnover for all parties in a given country. The project examines 202 parties from 28 elections in 14 countries.