Coping with uncertainty - predicting life history responses of zooplankton populations in the face of climate change

In light of ongoing climate change, it is suggested that producing variable offspring phenotypes as part of a risk spreading (bet hedging) strategy increases the probability of survival because this may buffer against unpredictable catastrophes. However, the question arises to what extent theoretical modelling can predict the outcome of life history strategies under future conditions. Here, I will investigate the responses of temporary pool invertebrates to projected climate change. First, I will assess the effects of changing temperature and inundation patterns on long term population growth, both empirically and using supporting demographic models. Second, I will simulate population dynamics to evaluate which life history strategies maximise population growth under different climate scenarios. I will then test if these simulations can predict the outcomes of experimental evolution trials over multiple generations. By performing these trials in isolated populations and populations embedded in natural communities, I will assess biotic constraints to adaptation. Overall, the results of this project will allow us to identify the adaptive potential of natural zooplankton populations as well as any ecological and evolutionary constraints to these adaptive strategies under forecasted climate change. By providing ‘proofs of principle’ in a well-characterised model system, this study may support similar research on other taxonomic groups capable of dormancy and delayed development.