Unpacking antecedents and consequences of entrepreneurs’ positive forecast bias

When entrepreneurs are asked about their ventures’ estimated chances of growth and survival, they typically tend to be much more optimistic than what statistics would suggest. Both theory and empirical evidence support this view of entrepreneurs being unduly positive about their future venture prospects. Entrepreneurs create forecasts for making a wide variety of decisions such as sales and financing decisions. Errors or positive biases in these forecasts have been shown to substantially decrease venture performance. Far less attention, however, has been spent on how such errors affect important external stakeholders. In this project we focus on one particularly relevant stakeholder for entrepreneurial ventures, being their venture capital (VC) investors. VCs are one of the earliest resource providers to entrepreneurial ventures. Moreover, entrepreneurs’ forecasts about the future venture performance are what VCs rely on to inform their decisionmaking, both prior to and after the investment has been made. Given the importance of forecasts and the accuracy therein to VCs, this project will examine (1) when entrepreneurs provide more positively biased forecasts to their VCs and (2) how VCs react to positive bias in VC-backed ventures.