Climate extremes in the Lake Victoria region: The role of urban- and lake-induced dynamics

Urbanization is one of the most drastic world-wide trends currently ongoing. The largest rate of increase in urban land cover is predicted for Africa, where the population living in cities is expected to increase from the current 200 million to circa 1.2 billion in 2050. The northern shore of Lake Victoria is one of the four hotspots of increasing urbanization in the world. Although this population is vulnerable to heat waves, droughts and extreme rainfall, the future evolution of these weather and climate extremes is uncertain. It is therefore absolutely necessary to advance 1) the representation of extreme convective systems in climate models, 2) the incorporation of land surface characteristics of tropical cities in models, 3) the climate projections for the region, taking into account urban- and lake-induced dynamics and 4) the assessment of the impact of east African urbanization on climate extremes. This project aims at making this advancement, by applying a regional climate model, with improved urban representation, at the convection permitting scale.

Keywords:Lake Victoria, climate, climate modelling, urbanization

Disciplines:Atmospheric sciences, Physical geography and environmental geoscience, Atmospheric sciences, challenges and pollution